Global focus and domestic patience, but now what comes next?

EVOLVING OPPOSITION LANDSCAPE

BY SAMANTHA THOMPSON

Prime Minister Mark Carney has marked his first full year in office amid heightened global uncertainties, with a clear emphasis on elevating Canada's international standing. Carney has deliberately positioned himself as a statesman on the world stage. However, a few key questions remain.

During the 2025 federal election campaign, Carney promised to move at “lightning speed” on a number of cornerstone priorities — including accelerating major project approvals, strengthening Canada’s economic security, and securing a stable economic arrangement with the United States. To date, progress on these fronts has been measured, rather than lightning fast.

Politically, the Prime Minister has been afforded significant room to maneuver. Many Canadians have attributed the economic friction experienced over the past year (particularly tariffs affecting key sectors) primarily to the policies and volatility of U.S. President Donald Trump. Moreover, because the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) continues to cover roughly 85 per cent of Canadian exports, the broader Canadian economy has been somewhat insulated from the full impact of bilateral tensions. This dynamic has provided the Carney government with a valuable runway. Over the past 12 months, the focus has largely been on direction and tone; projecting stability internationally while navigating a volatile global environment. In fact, recent polling indicates that three-in-five Canadians approve of Carney's performance, marking his highest rating since assuming office and reflecting satisfaction with his directional leadership amid global volatility.

However, now we are entering a period where previous commitments will be tested.

With a Liberal majority now anticipated by mid-April, following a series of upcoming by-elections with at least two ridings considered Liberal "safe seats" and the recent floor-crossing by Nunavut MP Lori Idlout, expectations for the government are shifting. Minority governments often allow room for incremental progress and directional change. A majority government, however, carries a different set of expectations.

For the Carney government, the coming months will likely mark a transition from direction to execution. Canadians who have thus far expressed satisfaction with the government’s overall trajectory will begin to assess whether the commitments made during the election campaign are delivered upon and translate into tangible outcomes.

The opposition landscape is also evolving

For much of the past year, the Conservative Party has been navigating internal challenges. Following the 2025 federal election, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre was left without a seat in the House of Commons, forcing the party to concentrate significant political energy and effort on securing a by-election victory. Attention then shifted to the party’s leadership review at the Conservative convention in late January. Now, with those internal matters largely settled, the Conservatives appear to be re-engaging more fully on the national stage. Poilievre’s recent international travel, including visits to Europe and the United States, suggests a potential recalibration in how he presents himself to Canadians, emphasizing a more statesmanlike profile alongside his established role as an effective opposition leader.  Whether this shift will narrow the polling gap remains an open question.

Looking ahead, several major files will shape Carney's second year

The conflict in the Middle East, including the ongoing situation in Iran, will influence global energy markets and affect Canadian resource extraction and export priorities. The Quebec provincial election could return a Parti Québécois government with strong polling momentum. Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has reiterated his long-term goal of sovereignty and a potential third referendum (after first building conditions for success). While outright separation remains a minority view in Quebec, the outcome will test Ottawa’s ability to manage federal-provincial relations and national unity questions. And certainly a key area of focus remains on the upcoming CUSMA review set to begin this summer. With veteran diplomat Janice Charette recently appointed as Canada's Chief Trade Negotiator to the United States, Ottawa is gearing up for what many see as one of the most high-stakes and consequential trade negotiations in recent memory — particularly amid the ongoing uncertainty and complexities presented under President Trump.

A majority mandate would allow the government greater freedom of action internationally, but it also would significantly raise expectations at home. Housing, affordability and the cost of living remain top-of-mind concerns for many Canadians as they live it day-to-day. If progress on these files remains slow, we can expect public attention to shift from global conditions toward Ottawa’s own policy choices and priorities.

In his first year, Mark Carney has established a strong international presence. The next phase of his premiership will test whether that direction can translate into actual results.